A nuclear strike from Russia against the United States and Europe
The probability and mentality of Russians
Victoria Arden

© Victoria Arden, 2024

ISBN 978-5-0065-0996-2

Created with Ridero smart publishing system

In recent years, the international situation has significantly worsened, which raises concerns about the possibility of a nuclear conflict. Nuclear powers such as Russia, the United States and European countries continue to build up their arsenals and modernize the means of delivering nuclear weapons. In the context of geopolitical tensions caused by the conflicts in Syria and the Middle East, the question of the likelihood of a nuclear strike is becoming increasingly relevant. Discussing the mentality and strategic thinking of Russian leaders in the context of nuclear weapons is necessary to understand how cultural and historical factors influence decisions about their use.

Goals and objectives of the book

The purpose of this book is to analyze the likelihood of a nuclear strike from Russia against the United States and Europe, as well as to consider the mentality and strategy behind the possible actions of the Russian authorities. The tasks of the book include:

1. A study of the historical context and evolution of Russia’s nuclear strategy.

2. Assessment of modern threats and risks associated with nuclear weapons.

3. Analysis of the influence of the mentality and perception of nuclear weapons on decision-making in Russia.

4. Consideration of the consequences of a possible nuclear strike and ways to prevent a nuclear conflict.

Chapter 1: Historical context

The Cold War and nuclear strategy

The Cold War (1947—1991) was a period of intense confrontation between the Soviet Union and the West, in particular, the United States. At this time, both sides were building up their nuclear arsenals, creating strategic and tactical nuclear forces. Nuclear weapons had become an important element of foreign policy, and both sides viewed them as a means of deterring the enemy.

The doctrine of Mutual Assured Destruction (MAD): One of the key concepts of the Cold War, based on the assumption that the use of nuclear weapons by one side would lead to an imminent retaliatory strike, which, in turn, would destroy both sides. This doctrine provided relative stability, albeit in the face of constant fear of a nuclear catastrophe.

Cuban Missile crisis: In 1962, the world was on the verge of nuclear war due to the deployment of Soviet missiles in Cuba. This crisis has demonstrated the complexity of nuclear deterrence and the importance of diplomacy in managing nuclear risks.

The post-Soviet period: changes in nuclear policy

After the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, Russia’s nuclear policy underwent significant changes. The deteriorating economic situation and internal conflicts have led to a rethink of strategies related to nuclear weapons.

Reducing the nuclear arsenal: In the early 1990s, Russia signed a number of arms control agreements, such as the Strategic Offensive Arms Reduction Treaty (START-1) and the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty (CTBT). These agreements have contributed to reducing nuclear stockpiles and reducing tensions.

The revival of nuclear potential: In the early 2000s, with the coming to power of Vladimir Putin, Russia began the process of reviving its nuclear potential. Old systems were upgraded and new ones were developed, such as the Yars and Sarmat missile systems, which created new opportunities for strategic deterrence.

Modern conflicts and their impact on nuclear relations

Modern international conflicts, such as the crisis the wars in Syria and the Middle East, have had a significant impact on nuclear relations between Russia and the West.

The impact on strategic deterrence: Modern conflicts have changed the approach to nuclear deterrence. Russia is actively developing new nuclear systems that can bypass the existing missile defense systems of the United States and NATO, which increases tensions.

Global challenges: Climate change, terrorism and cyber threats also require attention. Russia views these challenges as factors that can affect its national security and, consequently, its nuclear weapons policy.

The first chapter examined the evolution of Russia’s nuclear strategy from the Cold War to the present. The historical context and changes in nuclear policy form the basis for understanding current threats and the mentality influencing nuclear weapons decision-making. In the following chapters, we will analyze in detail the current situation and the factors contributing to the likelihood of a nuclear strike.

Chapter 2: Modern threats and risks

The geopolitical situation in the world

The modern world is going through a period of significant changes in the geopolitical sphere, which leads to new threats and challenges. Deepening contradictions between the great powers, increasing competition for resources and influence, as well as unstable regions – all this creates conditions for potential conflicts.

Deepening contradictions between the United States and Russia: After the end of the Cold War, relations between Russia and the West gradually deteriorated.

China’s Growing Influence: While the United States and Russia are focused on their contradictions, China is actively expanding its influence in Asia and beyond. China’s desire to strengthen its position in the South China Sea and its economic initiatives, such as the «One Belt, One Road», create new geopolitical realities to which both sides must adapt.

Regional conflicts and instability: Conflicts in Syria, Iran and the Korean peninsula continue to be sources of tension. These conflicts have global consequences, including in the context of nuclear deterrence, as countries with nuclear weapons use it as a means of putting pressure on their opponents.