   .  ,   
 


    .           .                   ,   .    ,   :        ,     ?   ,     .    ,          .     .

  PDF A4    .





 

  :  ,   



Capitalism, Alone: TheFuture ofthe System That Rules theWorld byBranko Milanovic

Copyright 2019 bythe President andFellows ofHarvard College Published byarrangement with Harvard University Press

  , 2022


* * *




1

     


[]         ,       , .. . ,      .

 ,    (1848)[1 -   (19551978, . 4,428).]

         ,          . ,  ,        ,         ,  ,     ,          .               ,           .

 ,   (1776)[2 -  (2007, 593594).]




1.1   - 


     . 頖 砫      ,  170; 頖  ,  250.       , , ,    ,     ,   . 頖     ,  - ,  . 頖        ,  , 頖 ,   .           ,     ,      (,      ). -        蠖   ,, .

 ,         蠖 ,   ,        ,  ,   .   ,   II..,  ,   -     ,              .    ,    ,   (          )  ,     .     ,     ,        .       ; ,   ,     .   ,  ,     ,     .

      ,     1848.     ,            ,  ,    .  ,            ,      .          .     ,   , ,   ,   ,    .       ,  ,      .              ,   .    , ,   ,   .

         ,         ,    , ,        .     ,  ,      ,  ,    .        ;   ,      ,   ,    頖  .  , (  )  ( )  (  )       ,      ,      ,       ,   ,  .  ,          .

     . ,    ,   ,    ,   ,   .       . ,        ,    ,        .         .  ,        ,      .      ,       ,      ,           , , , 90%     ,  頖    ,     .

          ,     5.        ,  ,         ,  ,       . , ,    ,     ,     ,  .            ,   .

,          ,  ,     , ,  . ,     .       ,              ,    , ,   .    ,   ,  , ,     ,    , ,           ,    .

      :   ,        ( 2),     ,  ,      (, , )     ( ,  , , , ) (  3).     ,                .       ,       (   ),           .    ,           . , , ,   XX,   ,    .       :    ,    , , ,   ,  . Ƞ ,  ,      ,       .




1.2     


   ࠖ   ,       :  . ,       ;   ,   ,    .   , ,  .  ,     ,   ,         ,     .    ,   .  ,        ()   , , I II XIV XV,             . ,        ,     . , ,      .         .    ,  ,    , ,    70%    80% ,     , ,  ,    .       ,     ,  ,   , .  ,   ,         ,   ,         ,  .

       ,    ,   -       .          ,     XIX.        ,                   ,       1820,  .1.1.        ,   ,    0 ( ) 1 ( ). (    ,  0100,       .)






ʠ1.1.    , 18202013

 =  ;  =   .

 :  18201980  Bourguignon andMorrisson (2002),          Maddison Project, 2018.  19882001  Lakner andMilanovic (2016)   .      (  ) 2011 (  International Comparison Project    2018).    ..



       ,        ,    ,       .     .      1820    ,  55  (       ) 70 (,     ).         ,  ,   (   ),         ,    .  1918     ,  ,     ,  ,        ,      .

            ,  75 ,       XX.       頖   頖  ,           .             1940- 1980-.       :    ,         .

   ,   ,  1980-.       8%    ,     .        3035%  ,   ,   1820,      ( ); ,     ,    .

       , , ,    .          ( ),        .       .

         ,     ()  ,       (    4).          ,  , ,  ,  ,     .  ,      ,      (..1.1).       ,       :       ,   ,  ,     ,  .

         .        ;          .  ,            ,      . ( , ,   ,          .)

       ;    .            . ,            .

           .                ,             ,   .

         ( )       ,   ,   ,    .  1970   56%  ,  ( )  19%.     3743%[3 - Ѡ19702016.          (22105  2011   ),     (3,57).].     ,       (.1.2).          ,    ,   (91% ,   ),   ,   ( 37%  )[4 -     YouGov 2016. .:Jef Desjardins, What People Think ofGlobalization, byCountry, Visual Capitalist, November9, 2017, http://www.visualcapitalist.com/globalization-by-country/ (http://www.visualcapitalist.com/globalization-by-country/).].






ʠ1.2.    ,        , 19502016

 :  World Bank World Development Indicators ( 2017),        ().



         ,   ,   ,    ,   ,  ,        (.4).         1970-,      ,       ,     .  ,       (,    , disarticulation), , ,     .      ,              .



  

   ࠖ - 頖 ,   .    ,   .      蠫   ,  ,   ,       ,        ,  :      .         ,   . Ѡ ,       ,     ,      ;  ,  ,          ,        .         ,            ,         .       ,      .

          ,    ,  .        ,      -  ,   . ߠ     ,    ,  ,      .  , ,      ,      . , ,      .




2

- 



       []?

,  .

, [5 -  (1994,344).]

 - 

 -  . ߠ       ,          ,      ,  .  ,   ,        [6 -     ,     (conomie marchande)    : Orlan (2011, 23).   (Vries 2013)  ,         (,   3).].

  蠫     ,     ⠫  (Rawls 1971;  1995).      ,    ,     ,      .     .    ,                    .  ,  -   ,     (),     ()      ().

    ,    -         .  3      .       ,     , .




2.1   - 





2.1a  


   - ,        XIX - ,  ,          1980-    .    -    ,      .  ,  - ,     ,     ,   .

2.1      ,    .    1914    ,          1980-  - ,   XXI   - [7 -     : Milanovic (2017).].  :    ,           ,      , , ,        . ,         , ,     -   .

            :   ( ) .          .    ,        ,    [8 -  ,        .].  ,      ,    .



2.1   , - - 




:     ,   .



     

         1914  ,    ,    ,   1920.    ,  ,       ,     . ,    (Piketty 2014, 200201;  2015, 204207)  ,     ,   .   17702010  ,     20 40%  .   1820 2010      :   15% 1940-   45% 1860-.           ,   .  , ,                (     ) (Samuelson 1976, 740).   XX       .        ,      ,   ,        (Karabarbounis andNeiman 2013).

      ,    ,   ,     .    ,  - , -  (2.1).           ,  ,  (1),      ,  (2)     .           .

 ,  (1), (2)          ,    : ,     ,         [9 -  , ,      ,     . ,    7   3  ;  , , 146.    ,    .].            ,   . (  .)  ,         (      )    ,        .  ,  ,  ,    ,     ,    ,       .

   ,         ,  .  ,       .        ,   ,     ,   .

      ,    :         .   ,       [10 - Ƞ     ,   , , ,     .].     (.2.1,  23).            ,  ,  ,     [11 - , ,  .              ,     .          .].



     

 ,   ,      (      )    (      ).  ,           .   .       ,  蠫.     ,      ;   .  1:   4   1  ;   4   16  .      ,     , .    2:   ,  1,  ,     8.   - ,          (1624 = 2/3),  ,         (8  4).

2  ,      ,     .    2   ,  1. ,     ,  ,  - , 頖 -  (.2.1,  4).      ,   (,     )   ,   -    ;       .        . ,     .       [12 -    , , ,  ,         .].         ,         . (  ,   100%   ,     ,   .)       ,  , ,   ,    () ,   ,      .

- ,    ,  .  ,  ,       (,    ,     ).   ,      ,  ,      (   , ,   ),        , -, ,      .  蠖  ,   ,     [13 -    ,      ,        (, ,       ),        ,        .  ,   ,   ;   ,   ,   .].   ,   ,      ,         .

     1%   (   ,  0,1%)       XXI (Piketty 2014;  2015)  [14 - .:Piketty (2014), ch. 8, figures 8.3and8.4;  (2015), .8,  8.38.4; ,  : Piketty andSaez (2003); Atkinson, Piketty, andSaez (2011); Bakija, Cole, andHeim (2010).].      .   ,        ,      ,   ,  .     - ,     .



 

        (2.1,  5).      ,      .     ,        .      ,  ,   . Ƞ ,   , -      .

   ,      1950- XXI.           ,    ,     ,      .      , ,       .  ,     ,  .   ,    50,  100,  ,   10,  20.  ,      (,   ),       : ,   100   20,       .  ,       ( 1950-),     .      10060.       ,       (  ):      12060,   .

  ,             .     ,         (       ). ,    -      ,           (,      ,   ),    .   (    ),    ,      -,   .   ,  蠖    ,     .          (      )   .           ,    .  ,    .



   

  ,  ,    ,   蠫 ,  ,        (2.1,  6).       ,   ,          .   ,      , ,       ,   ,    ,   .           ,  ,   -     ,   [15 -   ,    ,      ,-,       : Dahrendorf ([1963] 1978,113).]. ,          ,    . ,     ,        ,    (Corak 2013, 11; Brunori, Ferreira, andPeragine 2013, 27). ,                .



  - 

  ,      ?      -   ,  .      , ,   ,   , , ,      .   -   :       ,   ,    ,         ,  ,      .

,          ,    .  , -      ,  ,    ,    . Ƞ  ,     ,    (Milanovic 2016, ch. 2; 2017,.2).        ,     -     .      ,     .

-,        ,      . ,  ,       ,        .  1914 70%     1%    ;      20% (Alvaredo, Atkinson, andMorelli 2018).     ,   , .

-,    - ,   ,        . ,   ,   ,     ,   ,      ?  ,      ,  ,       ? , ,   ,    ,         ,  ,     ,  ,    ?           ,  ,  ,        (    ),   ,      -         .




2.1      - 


 ,  ,    - ,    .    ,    .       . ,            ,     ,     .       ,    ,       , ,   (Goldin andKatz 2010).            .    ,    ;  ,       ,   . ,      ,    ,   .

       ,    ,   ,    .    - ,        .   ,  ,  ()     ,             ,         , () ,      ,     .            ,    ,   .

        ,         ,       ( ) ࠖ      , ,   ..   ,   ,      .  , ,   , ,   ,    ,    ,  ,   .  ,         - ,    ,   [16 - ߠ,     .   ,     ,    ,    .].

             ,   r > g (,    ,    ).   (Ray 2014), , ,      :      ,    , r > g     ,        .  ,  ,   ,   ,  ,  - .   ,   .   ,       ,   ,  .   ! ,    ࠖ ,    ,   ,       , .        , -,      .       ,    ,  ,  ,  , - .

        ,     - (3)  .    ,     ;  ,   , ,      .




2.2  





2.2a      


     ,       .    ,      ,  , ,  70%     , 30%  (   ,    2.1a).  ,     .      ()     ,  ,       x     (     ),       x .           ,        (,,   ,    )  .

 ,      ,   ,      ,      ,  ,    .            .        . ʠ  , ,           (Goldin andKatz 2010).      ,                   .

 .   ,      ,   ,   (Elsby, Hobijn, andSahin 2013)    (Karabarbounis andNeiman2013) ,   [17 -       ..]. ,     ,   1970-   67%, 2010   45 .       45 , , ,       ,  [18 -  ,    .    .].  ,    ,   ,   (Daoetal. 2017) ,               ,       .

    ,       .   ,      ,   ,   ,    ,     ,    . ,        ,    ,    ,     .

  (Karabarbounis andNeiman2013) ,         (,     ),   ,           . ,          (   );     (     )     .    ,  :        ꠖ ,     [19 - Π     .:Kurz (2018).  ,   (     )      1986. 22% 2015. (7). Π  .:Azar, Marinescu, andSteinbaum (2017).].

  ,    -      .      ,      1949     ,        [20 - .:Branko Milanovic, Bob Solow onRents andDecoupling ofProductivity andWages, Global inequality blog, May2, 2015, http://glineq.blogspot.com/2015/05/bob-solow-on-rents-and-decoupling-of.html (http://glineq.blogspot.com/2015/05/bob-solow-on-rents-and-decoupling-of.html).].        ,    ,         ,   ,      [21 -               ,        ProMarket 8 2018.: https://promarket.org/angus-deaton-discussed-driver-inequality-america-easier-rent-seekers-affect-policy-much-europe/ (https://promarket.org/angus-deaton-discussed-driver-inequality-america-easier-rent-seekers-affect-policy-much-europe/).].

    (Barkai 2016) ,  ,  ,     ,  (   ), .    ,  ,  ,    , ,    ( )   [22 -  2015.          (Wolff 2017,27).]. ,  ,    ,  ,    ,   [23 -  Goldman Sachs Research,  ,            0,25    2000- (.: Alexandra Scaggs, OnJuggernaut Companies andWage Growth, Financial Times, February4, 2018).].

       (Davis 2016)       .  ,         .    ,      . ,     ,    ,   ,    ,     (work-to-rule conflicts). , ,       ,     ,     : 蠖    ,         .       . ,    .

       (    ),      ,     ࠖ  ,          ,        .




2.2    


      (   ),  .   :  ࠖ          ;         ,    .  ,         ,  ,  ,  [24 -    , , ,  1970-,    ,            ,   ,       ,    .].

       ,        , , 2013  1%        , 55%   , 65%   63%   . ,    , 10%      90%    (Wolff 2017, 103105).  ,  ,        10%  .  ,             ,      ,    30%[25 -  , ,     ,     ,     .].

    ,  ,  ,        ,    (    ,     )[26 -  ,  ,  ,                 .].     ,        .   ,         .

      , ,      (.2.1),    :      ,   ,    ,     [27 -         ,        ,          .     .  ,   ,       ,      .     ,    . ,     ,    ,      ,       .].         (    ),       :   0,9 ,  0,85 0,9 0,80,9[28 -    , ,   ,     ( ).].        ,  1 (         ).   ,            ,             ,     . , ,        ,    - [29 -        ,    ,      , ,      , ,     ,     (top-coding,      ) 蠫  (swapping,             ,      ).  , ,       ,    :      ,                ,   ,   ( ,   ,        1986).].









ʠ2.1.       , ,   1970-1980- 2010-.

     .        , ,  (.Yonzan etal. 2018),         .     ..

 :       (https://www.lisdatacenter.org (https://www.lisdatacenter.org/)),            ,         .



 ,      ( )        0,5  0,6.

         2013, , ,  ,            0,86(.2.2).     ,  0,5 0,6,   . ʠ     .



 

 ,             ,     .     ,          ( ).  ,       ,      蠫 .      젖     XXI .     (Ϡ )     ,     (?)   (2.2). ,       53  ,   100    ,  .

     ,          (     ), ,    ,    .  ,               ,              (Milanovic 2017).         (    ,   ),       .      .        ,            .






ʠ2.2.      ,  2013

 :      (https://www.lisdatacenter.org).



2.2            , 2013. ( ,   )




 :   堖 Credit Suisse Research Institute (2013),   (Jim Davies,  ).  Ϡ  , World Development Indicators.



 ,   ,     ,    ,      ꠫ . ?         .           .          ,    ,   ,       .

    ,       ,   ,    . ʠ   .




2.2      


Ӡ      ,        , ,  ,     ,   .  2013  20%        ,   60%          16%    (Wolff 2017, ch. 1)[30 -      ,  ,    .   (Grabka andWestermeier 2014) , 28%        ;         (Lundberg andWalderstrm 2016, table1).].     (     )      (       ).  ,  ,      ,         . Ѡ     : 2010      80% ( 5   4    1  )  20% 1950-(Kuhn, Schularick, andSteins 2017, 34).   ,         ,      . Ѡ80%  ,      20%,     .       2008.




  .


   .

   ,     (https://www.litres.ru/book/branko-milanovich/kapitalizm-i-nichego-bolshe-buduschee-sistemy-kotoraya-p-70902679/)  .

      Visa, MasterCard, Maestro,    ,   ,     ,  PayPal, WebMoney, ., QIWI ,       .



notes








1




  (19551978, . 4,428).




2




 (2007, 593594).




3


Ѡ19702016.          (22105  2011   ),     (3,57).




4


    YouGov 2016. .:Jef Desjardins, What People Think ofGlobalization, byCountry, Visual Capitalist, November9, 2017, http://www.visualcapitalist.com/globalization-by-country/ (http://www.visualcapitalist.com/globalization-by-country/).




5




 (1994,344).




6


    ,     (conomie marchande)    : Orlan (2011, 23).   (Vries 2013)  ,         (,   3).




7


    : Milanovic (2017).




8


 ,        .




9


 , ,      ,     . ,    7   3  ;  , , 146.    ,    .




10


Ƞ     ,   , , ,     .




11


, ,  .              ,     .          .




12


   , , ,  ,         .




13


   ,      ,        (, ,       ),        ,        .  ,   ,   ;   ,   ,   .




14


.:Piketty (2014), ch. 8, figures 8.3and8.4;  (2015), .8,  8.38.4; ,  : Piketty andSaez (2003); Atkinson, Piketty, andSaez (2011); Bakija, Cole, andHeim (2010).




15


  ,    ,      ,-,       : Dahrendorf ([1963] 1978,113).




16


ߠ,     .   ,     ,    ,    .




17


      ..




18


 ,    .    .




19


Π     .:Kurz (2018).  ,   (     )      1986. 22% 2015. (7). Π  .:Azar, Marinescu, andSteinbaum (2017).




20


.:Branko Milanovic, Bob Solow onRents andDecoupling ofProductivity andWages, Global inequality blog, May2, 2015, http://glineq.blogspot.com/2015/05/bob-solow-on-rents-and-decoupling-of.html (http://glineq.blogspot.com/2015/05/bob-solow-on-rents-and-decoupling-of.html).




21


              ,        ProMarket 8 2018.: https://promarket.org/angus-deaton-discussed-driver-inequality-america-easier-rent-seekers-affect-policy-much-europe/ (https://promarket.org/angus-deaton-discussed-driver-inequality-america-easier-rent-seekers-affect-policy-much-europe/).




22


 2015.          (Wolff 2017,27).




23


 Goldman Sachs Research,  ,            0,25    2000- (.: Alexandra Scaggs, OnJuggernaut Companies andWage Growth, Financial Times, February4, 2018).




24


   , , ,  1970-,    ,            ,   ,       ,    .




25


 , ,     ,     ,     .




26


 ,  ,  ,                 .




27


        ,        ,          .     .  ,   ,       ,      .     ,    . ,     ,    ,      ,       .




28


   , ,   ,     ( ).




29


       ,    ,      , ,      , ,     ,     (top-coding,      ) 蠫  (swapping,             ,      ).  , ,       ,    :      ,                ,   ,   ( ,   ,        1986).




30


     ,  ,    .   (Grabka andWestermeier 2014) , 28%        ;         (Lundberg andWalderstrm 2016, table1).


